Centralized and decentralized control polices for a two-stage stochastic supply chain with subcontracting

An analysis of control policies for a two-stage supply chain with subcontractors at each stage is presented when decisions at each stage concerning safety stocks, backorders, and subcontracting are made jointly or in a decentralized manner. The inventory/admission control policies considered are base stock, echelon base stock and partial backordering, and the objective is to maximize the mean profit rate of the system. The optimal control parameters are found by exhaustive search using Markov chains. From numerical examples it appears that the policies which manage jointly sales and production levels in each stage provide much higher overall (system) profits than decentralized policies, although the latter are individually more profitable for the second stage. In addition, partial backordering provides the system with an extra profit above those that result from the lost sales (no backordering) and complete backordering policies. Finally, a number of numerical results show the impact of variations in certain system parameters on the optimal control parameters and the corresponding profit.     

Determinants of Hazard Confronting New Entry: Does Financial Structure Matter?

This paper attempts to identify the determinants ofhazard confronting 219 new manufacturing firmsestablished in 1982–84 and followed up to1992 using a Cox regression model. Three sets ofvariables are combined in the analysis: firm, sectorand cohort specific. Financial, firm specificcharacteristics such as larger initial financialcapital size, conservative borrowing, heavier fixedasset commitment and lower diversification in terms ofholding other firms' assets are estimated to reducefirm hazard. Higher sectoral entry and lower sunk costsectoral requirements by increasing marketcontestability increase risk of failure together withcyclical variations.     

Do subjective expectations explain asset pricing puzzles?

The structural uncertainty model with Bayesian learning, advanced by Weitzman (AER 2007), provides a framework for gauging the effect of structural uncertainty on asset prices and risk premiums. This paper provides an operational version of this approach that incorporates realistic priors about consumption growth volatility, while guaranteeing finite asset pricing quantities. In contrast to the extant literature, the resulting asset pricing model with subjective expectations yields well-defined expected utility, finite moment generating function of the predictive distribution of consumption growth, and tractable expressions for equity premium and risk-free return. Our quantitative analysis reveals that explaining the historical equity premium and risk-free return, in the context of subjective expectations, requires implausible levels of structural uncertainty. Furthermore, these implausible prior beliefs result in consumption disaster probabilities that virtually coincide with those implied by more realistic priors. At the same time, the two sets of prior beliefs have diametrically opposite asset pricing implications.     

Why are postwar cycles smoother? Impulses or propagation?

This paper asks whether the remarkable decrease in business-cycle variability after the end of World War II has been the result of a more stable structure (the propagation mechanism) or less volatile shocks (the impulses). Using data from the pre-World War I, interwar, and post-World War II periods, for the US, Australia, Italy, Sweden, and the UK, our evidence suggests that the reduced volatility is mostly the result of calmer shocks, and less the consequence of a more stable structure. In the US, for example, we calculate that milder shocks have been responsible for around 80% of the reduction in output variability between interwar and postwar periods, while a more stable structure is responsible for the remaining 20%.     

Money,inflation, and output growth: Does the aggregate demand-aggregate supply model explain the international evidence?

Money, Inflation, and Output Growth: Does the Aggregate Demand-Aggregate Supply Model Explain the International Evidence? - Using annual post-war data for 32 countries, it is shown that output and the price level are positively related along the aggregate supply and negatively related along the aggregate demand curve. This implies that the negative correlation between inflation and growth simply means that the price level has been countercyclical as aggregate supply shocks domi-nated aggregate demand shocks. It is also shown that money growth has positive and permanent effects on inflation, but may affect output only in the short run: in the long run, money is probably neutral.     

The asymmetry of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve in the euro-area

Using a two-stage quantile regression framework, we uncover significant asymmetries across quantiles for all coefficients in an otherwise standard New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) for the euro area. A pure NKPC specification accurately captures inflation dynamics at high inflation quantiles.     

Trade openness and the effectiveness of fiscal policy: some empirical evidence

Is the potency of fiscal policy lower for more open economies, as suggested by economic theory? Using annual data from the period 1951?C2007, for 62 developed and developing economies, the paper??s empirical findings show that the effectiveness of fiscal policy is indeed reduced by an economy??s trade openness, and that the effect is quantitatively substantial. In particular, the paper??s estimates suggest that an increase in trade openness by 10% of GDP reduces the magnitude of the long-run fiscal multiplier by 5?C6%.     

Gender wage gaps and economic crisis in Greece

ABSTRACT

We examine gender wage gap (GWG) in Greece for 2013, by using a survey data set. Our findings show first, that the unadjusted GWG is 15.3%, while European Commission reports a value of 15%. Secondly, we derive the ‘adjusted’ GWG, using the Oaxaca and Ransom (OR) and the Juhn, Murphy and Pierce (JMP) methods to be ranging from 10% to 13.6%. Thirdly, looking into the behaviour of the full population, we find a decreasing trend for the discrimination effects, an increasing trend for the residuals effects and a ‘random’ endowments effects while moving to higher deciles. These three effects are associated to the economic crisis 2008–2015. Fourthly, our findings do not show evidence of either a ‘glass ceiling’ effect or a ‘sticky floor’ effect. Finally, that there is strong evidence that investing in higher education reduces the wage discrimination between sexes.     

The innovative bureaucrat: evidence from the correctional authorities in Washington State

Bureaucracies are usually regarded as inefficient, wasteful mechanisms. Contrary to this deeply rooted perception of bureaucracy, this paper documents the case of the correctional authorities in Washington State, a bureaucracy that acted with a considerable degree of innovation and professionalism. Their task was to administer a risk assessment instrument that measured the level of risk posed by offenders by way of a numerical score. They used that score to identify the level of supervision offenders were to receive once released into the community. In analyzing the data, I discovered an unusual application of the instrument that resulted in many offenders being bumped to a higher supervision level. Using a regression discontinuity design, I uncover the mechanics of the bumping-up process and I generate an instrument that is cleansed of the manipulation. I find that the manipulated instrument predicts serious recidivism events better than the cleansed instrument, especially when these events involve high-risk offenders, thus providing evidence that the authorities had good reason to undertake the manipulation.     

Termination fees and bilaterally efficient merger contracts

We present a simple model of exchange in which mutual gains from trade motivate the use of termination fees in merger contracts. The inclusion of a termination fee permits bilaterally efficient merger contracts that make merger consummation more likely and result in higher merger payoffs for both the bidder and the target compared to contracts without termination fees. Introducing risk aversion for either the bidder or the target has negligible effects upon the preferred contracts, revealing that termination fees are not primarily a form of bidder insurance, although they do increase the probability that a merger is consummated. The model provides a rich collection of predictions, all of which are consistent with the empirical regularities reported to date.